应用Kalman滤波方法的超短期负荷预报

几分钟到一小时的超短期负荷预报在电网在线控制中占有重要地位。本文将Ｋａｌｍａｎ滤波方法应用于超短期负荷预测，并在预报过程中引入极大似然估计进行模型未知参数辨识，达到了参数估计过程与预报过程的统一。并给出本算法在几个电网中的实际应用情况及算例分析。

Very Short-Term Load Forecasting by Kalman Filter Algorithm

The precise Very Short-Term Load Forecasting hasan important role in on-line real-time control of complex power system. In this Paper,Kalinan filter method is used for on-line Very Short-Term Load Forcasting (from several minutes to one hour). Maximum likelihood estimator algorithm is introduced for identification of unknown parameters in process of Kalman filter. The applications of this methods are discussed. The software on the basis of this method has been put into operation in Northeast China and North China power systems.