基于序列运算理论的随机生产模拟算法的实施

该文介绍了文献（1）所提出的随机生产模拟算法的实施与应用。其主要思路是，将生产模拟看作供应－需求的匹配过程。整个计算既可以基 于时序负荷曲线进行，也可以基于持续负荷曲线进行，还可基于期望值理论，计算各个单一资源和单一需求的可靠性和经济性指标，同时分析了其它指标的计算方法、算法的存储量和计算技巧等。同时，应用该文方法能较方便地分析传统随机生产模拟的一些结论。对于传统的模拟问题，通过对IEEE－RTS实例算例的计算以及与已有算法结果的比较，取得了一致的结果，证明了本算法的正确性。文中方法还可以突破传统随机生产模拟方法的局限，应用于综合资源规划、电力市场之中。该文通过区分多种负荷类别的算例说明了方法的适应性。

IMPLEMENT OF PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COST SIMULATION ALGORITHM BASED ON SEQUENCE OPERATION THEORY

A detailed calculation procedure of probabilistic production cost simulation (PPCS) is proposed in this paper. The main idea of this approach is that the process of production simulation is treated as supply-demand matching. This process can be performed under both load duration curve and chronolo-gical curve. Finally, some reliability and economic indices for each individual resource and demand can be calculated based on the theory of expected value of probabilistic sequences. Moreover, some well known conclusions which are got by traditional PPCS can be easily verified by the new approach in this paper. When dealing with traditional PPCS problems, such as IEEE Reliability Test System, the numeric example shows that the result of our approach is same as that of traditional one. However, the new method can meet the new challenge of production cost simulation in IRP or under deregulation environment, which can be shown in the results of case study.