参数不确定的配电系统可靠性区间评估

在结合区间运算和配电系统可靠性评估的网络等值法的基础上，提出了一种配电系统可靠性区间评估方法，它不但可以处理可靠性原始参数不确定对配电系统可靠性指标的影响，还可以方便地只通过一次区间评估求解出参数在任意给定区间段上变化时的系统可靠性指标范围，因而更能体现出系统可靠性指标的真实值。该方法还通过采用一定的简化措施，降低了评估的繁杂度，使其能适用于实际工程的可靠性评估。最后以两个算例的分析表明了该方法的有效性。

AN INTERVAL APPROACH TO EVALUATE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM RELIABILITY WITH PARAMETERS UNCERTAINTY

Based on the combination of interval operation with network-equivalent approach to reliability assessment of distribution system, an interval evaluation method of reliability in distribution system is presented. Interval evaluation method takes into account the uncertainty of all of the parameters and is able to provide strict bounds for indices, with only one evaluation. The final interval will contain all possible solutions due to the variations of the input parameters. It is also shown that it is possible to perform practical engineering reliability analysis by using interval evaluation with some simplifying measures. The effectiveness has been proved in some test examples.