微气象条件下输电线路导线覆冰预测模型

覆冰作为一种特殊的气象条件，给架空线路的安全运行造成严重影响。首先对山区微气象条件下输电线路导线覆冰规律进行深入研究，并得到在不同微气象条件下，各个气象参数对输电线路导线覆冰的影响系数不同这样一个结论。随后，根据不同的影响系数对各个微气点进行建模，基于此，提出了一种基于神经网络及模糊逻辑算法的输电线路导线覆冰组合预测模型。计算结果表明，上述基于微气象区域条件的输线电路导线覆冰预测模型与以往的全局模型和单纯的BP神经网络相比，有更高的预测精度，其在实际中的应用也取得了良好的效果。

Transmission Line Icing Prediction Model Under Micro-Meteorological Conditions

Icing as a kind of special weather condition has causing serious impacts on overhead transmission lines. A study is made in this paper on the icing characteristics of the transmission lines under mountainous micro-meteorological conditions, which shows that, ureter different miero-meteorolngical conditions, the influencing factors of transmission line icing vary with different meteorological parameters. A model is established for every micrn-meteorologieal point according to different influencing factors, based on which a combined forecasting model of transmission line icing is proposed according to neural networks and fuzzy logic algorithm. Experiments show that： the micro-meteorological area-based forecasting model of transmission line icing has a higher precision in prediction over the previous overall model and BP neural network and has a good practical application.