| 普似然不确定性估计方法的研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 祁静,黄国和,郝振达.普似然不确定性估计方法的研究进展[J].陕西电力,2013(12):79-82. |
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| 作者姓名： | 祁静 黄国和 郝振达 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学资源与环境研究院,北京102206 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了目前水文模型参数的不确定性分析和参数率定方法的局限性，概述了普似然不确定性估计（GLUE）方法的原理和步骤。GLUE~操作简单，模拟结果准确度高，避免了异参同效现象对模拟结果的影响。并将近年来多位学者提出的GLUE方法的改进型进行了概述和总结。最后提出GLUE方法目前仍存在的问题和将来可能的发展方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 普似然不确定性估计方法 水文模型 参数率定 不确定性 |
Probe into Progress in GLUE Method Research |
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| QI-Jing,HUANG-Guo-he,HAO Zhen-da.Probe into Progress in GLUE Method Research[J].Shanxi Electric Power,2013(12):79-82. |
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| Authors: | QI-Jing HUANG-Guo-he HAO Zhen-da |
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| Affiliation: | (Resources and Environment Research Institute, North. China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper introduces the uncertain analysis of current hydrological model parameter and the limitation of parameter calibration method, and summarizes the principle and steps of GLUE method, which is of simple operation and high simulation accuracy and has no influence of equifinality for different parameters on the results. The paper also summarizes the improved GLUE method proposed by several scholars in recent years, and points out the existing problems in current GLUE as well as its development direction in the future. |
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| Keywords: | glue method hydrological model parameter calibration uncertainties |
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