考虑风电不确定性和机组故障停运风险的两阶段鲁棒机组组合

发电机故障停运是电力系统运行中的不确定事件。目前在含风电鲁棒机组组合中考虑机组故障停运的方法，不同程度地忽略了机组故障停运的概率特征，难以较好描述机组故障停运风险。在含风电鲁棒机组组合模型的基础上，引入电量不足期望以量化机组故障停运风险，基于成本收益分析建立了考虑风电不确定性和机组故障停运风险的两阶段鲁棒机组组合模型，并提出计算电量不足期望的简化模型以提升计算效率。基于改进的IEEE-RTS 26机系统验证所提模型和方法，结果表明该方法能较好考虑风电不确定性和机组故障停运风险的影响，该简化模型能显著减小问题求解规模、缩短计算时间。

Two-Stage Robust Unit Commitment for Uncertainty of Wind Power and Generator Outage Contingency

Generator outage contingency is a kind of uncertainty in the operation of power system. However， for all the methods considering the generator outage contingency in robust unit commitment with wind power， the probability characteristics are neglected with varying degrees， and therefore the risk of the generator outage contingency cannot be modeled well. To address this issue， based on the robust unit commitment with wind power and the expected energy not supplied（EENS）， the paper proposes a two-stage robust unit commitment model with cost-benefit analysis for the uncertainty of the wind power and the generator outage contingency. Moreover， a simplified model for the EENS is proposed to improve the efficiency of calculation. The model and method is verified by IEEE-RTS 26-machine system. The results show that， the model can well model the uncertainty of the wind power and the effect of the risk of the generator outage contingency. In addition， the simplified model for the EENS reduces the scale of model and saves the calculation time obviously.