| 实物期权理论在风力发电项目投资决策中的应用 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王文平 杨洪平 |
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| 作者单位： | 国华能源投资有限公司;华北电网有限公司 |
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| 摘 要： | 由于风力发电项目投资具有很高的不可逆性、不确定性、竞争性和可持续发展特性，传统DCF分析方法不能很好地处理这些特性，DCF分析方法不能完全满足风力发电项目投资决策的需要。分析了风力发电项目投资的特点，提出了在风力发电项目投资决策中引入实物期权的基本思路和模型，并讨论了实物期权模型的应用方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 风力发电 投资决策 实物期权 |
The Application of Real Option on Wind Power Generation Project Investment Decision |
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| Authors: | WANG Wen-ping and YANG Hong-ping |
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| Affiliation: | Guohua Energy Investment Co., Ltd;.North China Grid Co., Ltd |
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| Abstract: | Irreversibility, uncertainty, rivalrousness and sustainable development are key characteristics of wind power generation project. Traditional DCF method can not deal with these characteristics very well. Thus DCF method is not fully applicable to wind power generation project. The characteristics of wind power generation project investment are analyzed, the ideas of introducing real option to wind power generation project investment decision are given, and the real option model and its application in wind power generation project investment decision are discussed in the paper. |
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| Keywords: | wind power generation investment decision real option |
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