基于概率的电网静态风险评估方法研究与应用

电网静态风险评估是电网规划的基础。针对传统电网规划使用的风险评估准则的局限性,提出了基于概率的静态风险评估方法。该方法采用潮流灵敏度算法进行失效状态的调整,所用的概率可靠性指标能够多维度量化电网安全运行风险,辨识电网安全风险薄弱环节的根源,统一度量电网规划方案的安全风险和投资风险。在广东电网的应用表明,该方法可以满足实际大电网静态风险评估的需要,具有良好的实用价值。

Research and Application of Probability-based Static Risk Assessment Method for the Power Grid

The static risk assessment of the power grid is the basis of its planning Aiming at the limitation of the traditional static risk assessment standards for power grid planning, a probability based static risk assessment method has been developed in this paper The method adopts an algorithm of power flow sensitivity to adjust insecure dispatch of power system The employed Probabilistic reliability index can quantify the operating risk of power grid in multiple dimensions and identify the weaknesses of power network security, as well as uniformly weigh the security risk and investment risk for a power system planning The application of the method to Guangdong Power Grid has shown that it can meet the practical requirement of static risk assessment of a large power system and has a good practical value