| 台风天气下电网负荷对气象因素的敏感度分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 莫若慧,符子星,曾炎,兰飞,吴锋,祁永福,吴云亮,胡剑琛,李献.台风天气下电网负荷对气象因素的敏感度分析[J].南方电网技术,2015,9(2):79-83. |
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| 作者姓名： | 莫若慧 符子星 曾炎 兰飞 吴锋 祁永福 吴云亮 胡剑琛 李献 |
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| 作者单位： | 海南电网电力调度控制中心，海口570203,广西大学 电气工程学院，南宁530004,广西大学 电气工程学院，南宁530004,广西大学 电气工程学院，南宁530004,海南电网电力调度控制中心，海口570203,海南电网电力调度控制中心，海口570203,海南电网电力调度控制中心，海口570203,海南电网电力调度控制中心，海口570203,海南电网电力调度控制中心，海口570203 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（51377027） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对风雨特殊天气数据样本少、负荷变化异常的特点,提出了一种新的负荷与气象敏感度分析方法。首先,基于灰色关联度理论,提出了一种基于相关系数变化率的负荷主要影响因素选择方法;其次,根据不同的气象条件区间,建立负荷与气象的多元线性回归关系,得到了更准确的负荷随气象因素变化的敏感度;最后,利用所提方法对海口电网的负荷和气象因素进行了敏感度分析,揭示了海口电网负荷随气象变化的规律,对提高台风等特殊风雨天气下电网的负荷预测精度和运行安全性具有实用参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷特性 影响因素 灰色关联度 分段回归 |
Sensitivity Analysis of Power Load to Meteorological Factors Under Typhoon Weather |
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| MO Ruohui,FU Zixing,ZENG Yan,LAN Fei,WU Feng,QI Yongfu,WU Yunliang,HU Jianchen and LI Xian.Sensitivity Analysis of Power Load to Meteorological Factors Under Typhoon Weather[J].Southern Power System Technology,2015,9(2):79-83. |
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| Authors: | MO Ruohui FU Zixing ZENG Yan LAN Fei WU Feng QI Yongfu WU Yunliang HU Jianchen and LI Xian |
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| Affiliation: | Hainan Power Grid Corporation Dispatch and Control Centre, Haikou 570203,China,College of Electrical Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China,College of Electrical Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China,College of Electrical Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China,Hainan Power Grid Corporation Dispatch and Control Centre, Haikou 570203,China,Hainan Power Grid Corporation Dispatch and Control Centre, Haikou 570203,China,Hainan Power Grid Corporation Dispatch and Control Centre, Haikou 570203,China,Hainan Power Grid Corporation Dispatch and Control Centre, Haikou 570203,China and Hainan Power Grid Corporation Dispatch and Control Centre, Haikou 570203,China |
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| Abstract: | Due to the lack of data about special windy or rainy weather and the abnormal change characteristics of loads, this paper proposes a new sensitivity analysis method between load and meteorology.Firstly, based on the grey theory to calculate the correlation coefficient,a method based on relative variance ratio to select the factors affecting the load is put forward.Secondly, the multiple linear regression relationship is built between load and weather according to the meteorological conditions in different intervals to get more accurate sensitivity between load and meteorological factors.Finally, sensitivity between load and meteorological factors in Haikou power grid is analyzed using the method above, revealing the law of load changing with weather in Haikou power grid.The result shows that the proposed method has a practical reference value for improving power grid load forecast accuracy and operation safety in the typhoon and other special weather conditions. |
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| Keywords: | load characteristic influencing factors grey correlation piecewise regression |
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