生命旋回-Markov组合模型在年径流预报中的应用

河川径流预测是一个十分复杂的问题,生命旋回模型在进行径流趋势预测时具有对资料要求少、计算简单等优点,但由于模型机理的限制,进行预测时得到的序列很难反映径流序列的随机波动变化,且存在预测结果精度不高的缺点。针对这一问题,文中提出了一种新的径流预报模型——生命旋回-Markov组合预测模型。该模型用生命旋回模型预报河川径流的趋势项变化,用周期修正方法反映其径流周期性特征,用Markov模型预报其径流序列随机变化,在此基础上对黄河龙门水文站年径流进行预测时,拟合精度为89.13%,合格率为90.22%,表明该模型精度较高,可为水利工程运行管理提供水文依据。

Application of the life cycle-Markov combination model for river annual runoff prediction

The river annual runoff prediction is very important for hydraulics and hydropower engineering management,it is also a complex problem.The life cycle model is a new long term prediction model for river runoff,which requires less data and simple calculation.However,due to the physical mechanism,the prediction results of the life cycle model can't reflect the fluctuate and random characteristics of the river annual funoff,and it can not meet the required precision for hydraulics and hydropower engineering management,usually one year prediction period is required for these problems.The life cycle-Markov combination prediction model is put forward,in which the life cycle model is used to predict the tendency of the river annual runoff,periodic modified method is adopted to predict the runoff periodicity and the Markov model is used to predict the random item.The annual runoff of the Yellow river at Longmen station from 1957 to 2001 is predicted with the new combination model,the annual runoff from 2002 to 2005 is tested,the results show that the average precision of the combination model is 89.13%,it shows that the prediction results is qualified,the new model can meet the requirement of real-time prediction for the management of hydraulics and hydropower engineering.