考虑动态洪水预见期的水库运行水位动态控制

为了在合理评估防洪风险的条件下提高洪水资源利用率，以潘口水库为算例，首先考虑为下游水库预留的防洪库容具有重叠使用的空间，对其汛期运行水位值进行了优化；其次利用预报预泄法建立模型，推求汛期运行水位动态控制域的上限值；最后重点考虑洪水预见期的动态变化，求解基于风险分析的动态控制域。计算得出，水库汛期运行水位可由原来的347.60 m提高至350.50 m，考虑洪水预见期的变动区间为3, 6] h，以0.5 h为间隔，最终求得的汛期运行水位动态控制域为350.50, 351.40] m，相应的发电效益可以分别提高0.19亿kW?h至0.25亿kW?h。结果表明，在综合考虑防洪安全与兴利蓄水的条件下，依据所提出的方案对潘口水库进行汛期运行水位动态控制是合理可行的。

Dynamic control of reservoir operating stage considering dynamic flood forecast period

To make full use of water resources and improve flood utilization under the condition of reasonable assessment of flood control risk, dynamic control of reservoir stage is examined through a case study of the Pankou reservoir. First, we optimize the flood season stage of a reservoir by assuming that its flood storage capacity reserved for the downstream reservoir has an overlapping space, and then use a forecast pre-discharge method to construct a model for estimating the upper limit of the dynamic control domain of reservoir stage. Finally, we focus on the dynamic change in flood forecast period and obtain the dynamic control domain based on risk analysis. Calculations show that in flood season, the reservoir stage can be raised up from 347.60 m to 350.50 m, and its corresponding dynamic stage control domain is 350.50, 351.40] m when considering a range of the flood forecast period of 3, 6] h with an interval of 0.5 h. And the resulting increase in power generation is 19 million kW?h to 25 million kW?h. The study indicates that to consider both flood control safety and water storage comprehensively, the schemes presented in this study are reasonable and feasible to control the stage of the Pankou reservoir in flood season.