考虑滑坡堵江坝溃决影响的水库溃坝风险

为研究滑坡堵江坝溃决后对下游水库溃坝的影响，主要采用贝叶斯网络方法，融合蒙特卡洛模拟，推求天然洪水与滑坡堵江坝溃决洪水组合作用下引发水库溃坝的条件概率，以此评估水库溃坝风险。实例应用表明：天然洪水导致猴子岩水库溃坝的条件概率较小，即水库溃坝风险较低；猴子岩水库在正常蓄水位时，堵江坝溃决洪水引发水库溃坝的条件概率超过0.3；天然洪水叠加堵江坝溃决洪水后，猴子岩水库溃坝风险增大几万倍。

Dam break risk of reservoir under impact of landslide dam break floods

To study the impact of landslide dam break floods on the risk of a downstream reservoir, a Bayesian network method and Monte Carlo simulations are used to calculate the conditional probability of reservoir dam break under the combined action of natural floods and landslide dam break floods, and the risk of reservoir dam break is evaluated. A case study of the Houziyan reservoir shows that at its normal water stage, the conditional probability of dam break caused only by natural floods is low or the risk is low, while the one caused only by landslide dam break floods is greater than 0.3. And the risk is increased by tens of thousands of times under the combined action of two types of floods.