南方电网水-火电合作博弈及关键影响要素分析北大核心CSCD

火电是我国目前主要的电力供给来源,但其带来的环境污染较为严重;我国西南水电资源丰富,但存在严重的弃水弃电问题。降低水电和火电的竞争矛盾将同时有利于高效利用能源和降低碳排放。本文以澜沧江水电为例研究南方电网水电-火电合作博弈,构建了梯级电站优化调度模型和水电-火电合作博弈模型,提出了改进的夏普利值法用以利益分配,结果与现实情况符合较好。在此基础上,分析了水文丰枯、煤炭价格、绿证配额等关键要素对博弈的影响。结果表明,天然来水增多和绿证配额提升能增大合作空间;煤炭价格变动对整体利益影响不大;当考虑环境成本时水电公司将明显获益。建议尽快完善绿证制度,以增大水电火电合作空间,促进碳达峰和碳中和目标实现。

Cooperation game theory model for hydropower and thermal power in China Southern Power Grid and analysis of its key impact factors

Thermal power is a main power supply source in China, but its environmental pollution is severe. Southwest China is rich in hydropower but faces the problem of abandoning surplus water and power. Reducing the competition between hydropower and thermal power will be conducive to efficient energy use and carbon emission reduction. Herein we take the hydropower of Lancang River as a case study of the cooperative game between hydropower and thermal power in China Southern Power Grid, and develop an optimization model for the Lancang River cascade hydropower operation and a cooperative game model for hydropower and thermal power cooperation. An improved Shapley value method is constructed to allocate the incremental benefit. Based on the models, we analyze the effect of the hydrological conditions, coal price, and green certificate quota on the cooperative game. The results show that an increase in water availability and green certificate quota can enlarge the cooperation space, while the effect of coal price change on the overall benefit of cooperation is insignificant. Considering environmental costs, hydropower companies will benefit more. Thus, we suggest a green certificate system be established to enlarge the cooperation space of hydropower and thermal power, helping achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.