梯级电站补偿效益分摊方案稳定性评价及决策

针对梯级水电站补偿效益分摊方案决策优选问题，考虑不同分摊方案的稳定性及决策者受心理因素影响的情况，引入分裂倾向（PTD）值对不同的补偿效益分摊方案进行稳定性评价，构建基于各水电站分摊比例、各水电站分摊后发电效益、各水电站PTD值的决策指标体系。进而提出一种基于后悔理论的改进理想点决策方法，对汉江中游南河流域上的三里坪、寺坪、过渡湾梯级水电站补偿效益分摊方案集进行决策优选。通过实例验证了该方法在解决梯级水电站补偿效益分摊方案决策优选问题中的合理性与可行性。

Stability evaluation and decision-making on cascade hydropower stations’ compensation benefit allocation schemes

To optimize compensation benefit allocation schemes for cascade hydropower stations, we consider the stability of different schemes and the conditions of decision-makers affected by psychological factors, and suggest a propensity-to-disrupt (PTD) value for evaluating the stability. Then, we construct a decision-making index system that is based on the allocation proportion, power generation benefit, and PTD value of each hydropower station, and develop an improved ideal point decision-making based on the regret theory. This method along with the index system is verified through application to optimizing the compensation benefit allocation schemes for the cascade hydropower stations of Sanliping, Siping and Guoduwan in the Nanhe basin of the middle Hanjiang River.