| 基于非对称阿基米德Copula的多变量水文干旱联合概率研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋松柏,聂荣.基于非对称阿基米德Copula的多变量水文干旱联合概率研究[J].水力发电学报,2011,30(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋松柏 聂荣 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,杨凌,712100
2. 陕西省渭河流域管理局,西安,710018 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(50879070,50579065); 西北农林科技大学优秀博士论文基金(2005) |
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| 摘 要： | 推导了5种常用3维非对称阿基米德Copulas函数的条件Copulas和密度函数,阐述了这类Copulas函数研究水文干旱特性联合分布的应用技术问题。以渭河流域北洛河状头站的径流序列为例,干旱变量的边际分布参数分别采用矩法、概率权重法、极大似然法和遗传算法进行计算和选优,并进行了分布函数拟合度检验。变量相依性的度量表明干旱变量间有较强的相依性;根据AIC,BIC和RMSE准则,M12 Copula拟合效果最优。最后,进行了M12 Copula的拟合度检验,计算了北洛河状头站3维水文干旱变量组合的联合概率、条件概率和相应的重现期。
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| 关 键 词： | 非对称Archimedean Copula函数 干旱 联合分布 |
Asymmetric Archimedean Copulas for multivariate hydrological drought frequency analysis |
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| SONG Songbai,NIE Rong.Asymmetric Archimedean Copulas for multivariate hydrological drought frequency analysis[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2011,30(4). |
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| Authors: | SONG Songbai NIE Rong |
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| Affiliation: | SONG Songbai1,NIE Rong2(1.College of Water resources and Architecture Engineering,Northwest A & F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,2.Wei He Watershed Management Bureau of Shannxi,Shaanxi 712100) |
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| Abstract: | This paper derives conditional Copulas and Copula densities of 5 common asymmetric Archimedean Copulas,and presents a procedure for applying these copulas to hydrological drought joint probability distribution.Monthly average flow data from Zhuangtou gauging station in Weihe Basin,China,is used to illustrate this approach,and parameters of these univariate distributions are estimated using the methods of moments(MOM),probability weighted moments(PWM),maximum likelihood method(MLM) and genetic algorithm(GA).... |
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| Keywords: | asymmetric Archimedean copulas drought joint probability distribution |
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