| 弹性自适应人工鱼群-BP神经网络模型及在短期电价预测中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 师彪,李郁侠,于新花,闫旺,李娜,孟欣,李鹏.弹性自适应人工鱼群-BP神经网络模型及在短期电价预测中的应用[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(1). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 师彪 李郁侠 于新花 闫旺 李娜 孟欣 李鹏 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西安理工大学水利水电学院,西安,710048
2. 青岛科技大学高职业技术学院,青岛,261000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家火炬计划基金(07C26213711606); 陕西省自然科学基金研究计划(SJ08E220); 山东省软科学基金(2007RKB188) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了提高短期电价预测精度,分析了人工鱼群算法及其缺点,提出了一种弹性自适应人工鱼群算法(RAAFSA).应用RAAFSA算法训练BP神经网络,实现了BP神经网络参数优化,形成弹性自适应人工鱼群-BP神经网络混合算法(RAAFSA-BP),对贵州电网进行短期电价预测.仿真表明,弹性自适应人工鱼群优化的BP神经网络算法收敛速度快于BP神经网络算法和人工鱼群-BP神经网络算法,该混合算法克服了BP神经网络和人工鱼群算法易陷于局部极值、搜索质量差和精度不高的缺点,改善了BP神经网络的泛化能力,输出稳定性好,预报精度显著提高,各日预测电价的平均百分比误差可控制在2%以内,平均绝对误差最大值为1.762$/MWh.该混合算法可有效用于电力市场短期电价预测.
|
| 关 键 词： | 电价预测 RAAFSA-BP网络算法 弹性自适应人工鱼群算法 BP神经网络 |
Short-term electricity price prediction based on resilient adaptive artificial fish school algorithm and back propagation neural network hybrid algorithm |
| |
| SHI Biao
,
LI Yuxia
,
YU Xinhua
,
YAN Wang
,
LI Na
,
MENG Xin
,
LI Peng.Short-term electricity price prediction based on resilient adaptive artificial fish school algorithm and back propagation neural network hybrid algorithm[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2010,29(1). |
| |
| Authors: | SHI Biao LI Yuxia YU Xinhua YAN Wang LI Na MENG Xin LI Peng |
| |
| Affiliation: | SHI Biao~1,LI Yuxia~1,YU Xinhua~2,YAN Wang~1,LI Na~1,MENG Xin~1,LI Peng~1(1.Institute of Water Resources , Hydro-electric Engineering,Xi-an University of Technology,Xl\'an 710048,2.Technical Institute of High Vocation,QingDao University of Science , Technology,QingDao 2610001) |
| |
| Abstract: | To improve the accuracy of short-term price forecast of power market,this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the traditional artificial fish school algorithm (AFSA),and a resilient adaptive AFSA(RAAFSA) is put forth.The forecast model adopts a hybrid algorithm RAAFSA-BP that is a combination of RAAFSA with back propagation(BP) neural network,or neural network trained by RAAFSA.This model can be used for short-term price forecast and the model parameters are automatically determined from sample data.Test res... |
| |
| Keywords: | short-term price forecast RAAFSH-BP hybrid algorithm resilient adaptive artificial fish school algorithm the back propagation neural network |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
