运行可靠性在线短期评估方案

运行可靠性短期评估基于能量管理系统／广域测量系统（EMS／WAMS），研究电力系统在实时运行状态下的短期可靠性水平。建立了一套运行可靠性在线短期评估方案，给出了指标体系、评估算法和应用框架。进一步介绍了方案实施中所采用的关键技术：通过建立元件实时模型，评估系统在当前运行状态下的可靠性；基于瞬时状态概率评估系统的短期可靠性；采用快速排序技术进行系统状态选择，协调评估精度和速度的矛盾，实现在线评估；基于系统实时运行工况分析系统状态在预测时刻的后果。通过IEEE—RTS系统验证了整套方案的可行性和有效性。

A Scheme for Online Short-term Operational Reliability Evaluation

The short-term reliability of a power system in the real-time operating state based on EMS/WAMS (energy management system/wide-area measurement system) is studied. The evaluation scheme for online short-term operational reliability including indices, algorithm and application frame is proposed. The key techniques used in the scheme are described. The real-time component models are established to evaluate the system reliability in the current operating state. The time-dependent state probability of a component is adopted to study the short-term reliability of power system. The fast sorting technique is applied to system state selection to balance evaluation accuracy and speed, realizing online evaluation. The selected system states are analyzed based on the system operating conditions during forecasting. The feasibility and validity of the evaluation scheme proposed are proved by application to the IEEE-RTS.