电气主接线可靠性评估的区间方法

提出了发电厂／变电站电气主接线可靠性评估的区间分析方法，同时提出了主接线方案经济分析的区间模型。该方法能够较为合理地将可靠性参数处理为区间数，在计算过程中全程考虑参数的不确定性。经1次计算即可得到反映所有(或任意)参数不确知风险影响的各个可靠性指标和经济性计算结果。由于区间值结果涵盖了已知风险因素，因此为决策者提供了更为科学和符合工程实际的定量评估数据。电气主接线可靠性评估的区间分析方法同时也是一种更新的、更为灵活和强大的多因素灵敏度分析手段。

INTERVAL METHOD FOR POWER STATION AND SUBSTATION RELIABILITY EVALUATION

The interval method for reliability analysis of power station/substation bus arrangements is proposed. Novel interval economic models for station/substation bus arrangements designs selection are presented as well. The interval component models for power station/substation interval reliability evaluation are given, which include circuit breaker model, busbar model and models of generator, transformer, transmission line and switches. Deconvolution formulae are applied to overcome the dependency problem and obtain sharp bounds of the results of reliability studies. The interval reliability evaluation and its results reflect the uncertainties associated with data throughout the analysis process, providing the quantitative value of uncertain risk and helping to select the optimal design. Interval analysis based station/substation reliability evaluation software is developed and applied to a large hydroelectric power station. All results demonstrate that the software is valid and effective. It provides a viable and easy-to-use tool for the power system planning, field engineering and operations. Furthermore, it is a flexible tool for sensitivity analysis.