考虑市场力的短、中、长期电价预测

分别介绍了采用BP神经网络模型和线性回归模型进行电价预测的方法和结果。方法的突出特点是在预测模型中引入了一个衡量市场力的新指标——发电容量必须运行率(MRR)，从而充分考虑了市场力对电价的影响，提高了电价预测的精度，特别是增强了短期预测模型对最高限价的预测能力。文中对MRR指标进行了简单的介绍，并针对电价预测的不同特点，对预测模型和预测变量的选择进行了探讨，提出了自己的观点。基于浙江电力市场实际运营数据的初步预测结果表明，所建预测模型是适用的，选择的预测输入变量是恰当的，电价预测精度能够满足电力市场实际运营的需要。

SHORT-TERM, MEDIUM-TERM AND LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY PRICE WITH CONSIDERATION TO MARKET POWER

A BP forecast model and a linear regression forecast model are described, and prediction results are reported. A salient feature of the reported methods is that the forecast models can take into account the influence of market power on the fluctuation of electricity price. This is achieved by using a market power index, namely, must run ratio (MRR), as an input to the price forecast model. Particularly, the capability of the BP model in forecasting when price reaches price caps is evidently enhanced. A detailed discussion on the choice of forecast models and forecast variables is reported. The suggested method has been used to forecast short term, medium, and long term prices in Zhejiang Electricity Market. The results show that the proposed forecast models work reasonably well. Using the proposed forecast models, the price forecast errors can be limited within a range that meets the requirement of actual electricity market operation.