考虑天气变化的可靠性评估模型与分析

电力系统可靠性评估的结果受天气变化的影响很大，可靠性评估的模型是所有问题研究的重点。文中建立了考虑两种天气状态时可靠性评估的数学模型，提出了在恶劣天气条件下元件能否维修两种情况下可靠性指标的分析方法，并给出了在这两种情况下计算可靠性原始参数的两组公式，对恶劣天气占不同比例时可靠性指标的误差进行了分析，结果显示系统可靠性指标受恶劣天气的影响极大。最后通过算例证明了文中模型的有效性，同时该模型还可用于研究如温度、湿度、强度等类似的环境变化对系统可靠性影响的分析，对电网规划和实际操作有一定的指导意义。

MODEL AND ANALYSIS OF POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION CONSIDERING WEATHER CHANGE

The variety of the weather condition in which a transmission and distribution hybrid system resides has a significant impact on the reliability results of power systems; therefore, model is the key point of reliability evaluation when considering weather change. This paper illustrates a two-state model that can be utilized for the evaluation of reliability indices in both adverse and normal weather conditions, and the reliability evaluation method is presented to consider the amend of the components in adverse weather and derived two sets of corresponding equations. The error factors of reliability indices changed with different proportion of adverse weather occurring are analyzed. The result has testified the validation of the presented model. Moreover, the model can be easily applied in the similar evaluation when incorporating the environment change such as temperature, humidity and intensity etc, and it is much useful for power system planning and practical operation.