计及风险约束的多阶段输电系统规划方法

多阶段输电系统规划问题是一个复杂的非线性组合优化问题。与传统的输电系统规划问题相比,电力市场环境下的输电系统规划更加复杂,需要处理的不确定性因素更多。在不确定性环境下所制定的输电系统规划决策不可避免地会带有一定的风险,包括安全风险与经济风险。因此,在制定输电系统规划方案时需要适当考虑风险的影响,亦即需要进行风险管理。在此背景下,文中利用机会约束规划可以显式描述风险的特点,构造了计及风险约束的多阶段输电系统规划的模型框架,并给出了相应的求解算法,为解决这一重要而困难的问题做了一些新的尝试。最后通过一个算例系统说明了所提出的方法的可行性。

Risk-constrained Multistage Transmission System Expansion Planning

Optimal multistage transmission system expansion planning is a large-scale nonlinear combinatorial optimization problem. Compared with the transmission system planning in the traditional monopoly industry, the transmission system planning in the electricity market environment is more complicated. Deregulation introduces more uncertain factors for the transmission planning processes, and hence security and economic risks will be inevitably incurred in the planning scheme produced under such an uncertain environment. Given this background, a new risk-constrained model for the multistage transmission system expansion planning is first presented based on the chance constrained programming, and a method is next presented for solving the optimization problem using the well-known Monte Carlo simulation method and the genetic algorithm. Finally, a 19-bus sample system is used for demonstrating the essential features of the developed model and method.