电力系统多级负荷预测及其协调问题:（一）研究框架

基于对传统负荷预测中总需求与各子需求预测结果的不均衡现象的深入分析,揭示了电力系统负荷预测问题所具有的"多维多级"特点。在此基础上,提出了电力系统中多级负荷预测协调的科学问题,阐明了多级负荷预测和多级负荷预测协调的新理念。进一步分析了负荷预测模型的"量测"特性,并将多级预测协调与状态估计进行了类比,阐明了多级预测协调的理论基础。文中还探讨了多级负荷预测协调问题的类别及其各自的特点,提出了基本协调和关联协调模式,由此建立了多级预测协调问题的理论研究框架。希望该研究能够丰富和发展负荷预测理论,为广大预测人员提供一些参考。

Power System Multilevel Load Forecasting and Coordinating Part One Research Framework

By analyzing the phenomena of unbalance between the forecasting results of total demand and sub-demands in the conventional load forecasting, the multidimensional and multilevel feature of load forecasting is revealed. Based on the analysis, the scientific issue of multilevel load forecasting and coordinating is presented along with relevant concepts. Taking the measurement feature of load forecasting models into account, the coordination of multilevel load forecasting is compared with state estimation, which forms the theoretical basis of multilevel load forecasting and coordinating. Based on the classification of multilevel load forecasting and coordinating problems, basic and correlative coordinating models are proposed, and the theoretical research framework of multilevel load forecasting and coordinating is established. It is expected that the study could further develop the basic load forecasting theory and provide useful reference for the industry.