基于运行数据的短期风电功率预测误差互补特性探析

随着风电装机容量的不断增加,风电场、风电场集群功率预测误差对调度运行的影响越来越大.当前风电预测误差特性研究主要针对单个风电场,无法满足当前电网调度运行需求.基于此,文中首先统计分析了大量风电场的分布特性,总结了不同规模风电场集群预测误差分布特性的变化规律,探索了集群预测误差概率分布的最佳拟合模型.然后,针对预测误差分布对未来的指导作用,提出了误差分布持续性的评价指标.最后,对风电预测误差研究的作用进行了较为全面的分析,并指出以风电场站集群为单位开展电网调度更具有工程适用性.

Operation Data Based Analysis on Complementary Characteristics of Short-term Power Prediction Error for Wind Power

With the increasing installed capacity of wind power, the impact of the power prediction error of wind farms and wind farm clusters on dispatching and operation is increasing. Current research on the characteristics of wind power prediction error is mainly for a single wind farm, which cannot meet the current demand of power grid dispatching and operation. Therefore, the paper counts and analyzes the distribution characteristics of a large number of wind farms, summarizes the variation law of distribution characteristics of the prediction error for different scales of wind farm clusters, and explores the best fitting model of the probability distribution of cluster prediction error. Then, in view of the guiding role of the prediction error distribution, the evaluation index for the persistence of error distribution is proposed. Finally, a more comprehensive analysis on the role of the prediction error research of wind power is carried out, and it is also pointed out that it has more engineering applicability to carry out the power grid dispatching with wind farm station clusters as a unit.