| 一种内蕴误差评价的负荷预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 穆钢,侯凯元,杨右虹,惠永杰.一种内蕴误差评价的负荷预报方法[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(22):37-40. |
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| 作者姓名： | 穆钢 侯凯元 杨右虹 惠永杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 东北电力学院
2. 吉林市供电公司 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了一种基于内蕴误差评价的电力系统短期负荷预报方法。该方法建立在对负荷规律性和预报方法有效性全面评估的基础上，使预报和误差评价融于一体。运用该方法可以有效地诊断导致预报误差的主要因素，并在预报前估计预报误差的上下限，从而对发掘提高负荷预报准确度的潜力有所帮助。实例表明，该方法应用于短期负荷预报和预报精度评价是有效的。
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷预报 内蕴误差评价 负荷规律性 预报误差上下限 |
| 收稿时间： | 1/1/1900 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 1/1/1900 12:00:00 AM |
LOAD FORECASTING METHOD BASED ON INTRINSIC ERROR EVALUATION |
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| Mu Gang,H ou K aiyuan,Yang Youhong,H ui Yongjie .Northeast China Institute of Electric Power Engineering,Jilin ,China .Jilin City Electric Power Com pany,Jilin ,China.LOAD FORECASTING METHOD BASED ON INTRINSIC ERROR EVALUATION[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2001,25(22):37-40. |
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| Authors: | Mu Gang H ou K aiyuan Yang Youhong H ui Yongjie Northeast China Institute of Electric Power Engineering Jilin China Jilin City Electric Power Com pany Jilin China |
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| Affiliation: | Mu Gang1,H ou K aiyuan1,Yang Youhong2,H ui Yongjie2 1.Northeast China Institute of Electric Power Engineering,Jilin132 0 12,China 2 .Jilin City Electric Power Com pany,Jilin 132 0 0 1,China |
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| Abstract: | A new load forecasting method based on intrinsic error evaluation is proposed.The m ethod is developed on the basis of thoroughly evaluating load regularity and forecast m odel efficiency,and merges forecast calculation together with error evaluation. By use of the method,it is helpful to improve the accuracy of forecast and to diagnose the m ain factors resulting in forecasting errors.L oad forecasting practices in a real system by the m ethod illustrate that higher forecast accuracy can be produced and high and low error lim its can be estimated prior to forecast. |
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| Keywords: | load forecasting intrinsic error evaluation load regularity forecast error limits |
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