基于可信性理论的电力系统运行风险评估:（一）运行风险的提出与发展

介绍了运行风险评估的基本定义,总结了电力系统运行风险评估与传统调度确定性分析方法和电力可靠性研究相区别的特征.电力系统运行风险评估的主要目的有2个:一是对电力系统运行中的不确定性因素进行定量评估,建立运行风险指标体系;二是以运行风险指标为决策手段,综合协调电力系统的安全性与经济性.与核电厂运行风险进行类比,分析了电网运行风险评估的发展前景.概述了运行风险评估的相关研究已分别在元件级的安全评估和系统级的安全评估2方面取得的一些重要进展,介绍了它们所借鉴的传统的可靠性研究方法,阐述了风险评估的研究思路.

Power System Operation Risk Assessment Based on Credibility Theory Part One Propound and Development of Operation Risk Assessment

The basic concept of operation risk assessment is presented, and characteristic of the differences among operation risk assessment, deterministic security assessment of traditional power dispatching and power system reliability analysis are summarized. The main objectives of the operation risk assessment are at two aspects: one is to assess the uncertainty factors in power system operation quantitatively and build the index systems of operation risk assessment; the other is to coordinate the security and economy of power system synthetically by taking the operation risk assessment indexes as the decision means. The development prospects of operation risk assessment of power system are analyzed by drawing analogy with nuclear power plant. Some important progresses in relevant researches of operation risk assessment at the two respective aspects of component and system security assessments are presented, and traditional research methods using for reference are introduced, and the research train of thoughts on risk assessment is described as well.