电力市场中预测问题的新内涵

传统的负荷预测是电力系统规划与运行的基础工作,电力市场化的改革对负荷预测提出了更高的要求,赋予其新的内涵。文中探讨了电力市场中的预测问题,分别针对发电侧竞价和用户侧开放的电力市场,提出了一些新的预测内容和预测思想,包括扩展短期负荷预测、连续多日负荷曲线预测、电力市场价格预测、市场风险预测与评估、考虑需求侧管理影响的电力需求预测、用电需求曲线预测、基于价格弹性的需求预测等,指出了这些预测问题的研究热点和难点,探讨了未来的主要研究方向。

NEW CONNOTATION OF FORECASTING ISSUES IN ELECTRICITY MARKET

Traditional load forecasting (TLF) is the basis of power system planning and operation. In the environment of electricity market, TLF is confronted with many new requirements. Some new and main forecasting issues in electricity market are discussed briefly in this paper. According to generation markets and the environment of demand-side opening, new forecasting objects and ideas are proposed and analyzed respectively, such as extended short-term load forecasting, multi-day load curve forecasting, electricity market price forecasting, risk forecasting and assessment, demand forecasting considering demand side management, electricity demand curve forecasting, price elasticity based demand forecasting, etc. Furthermore, some hot topics and difficulties are concluded and the prospects of future study on these issues are pointed out.