短期风电功率预测误差综合评价方法

对短期风电功率预测误差进行综合评价是改进预测精度、指导预测结果合理应用的前提.当前风电功率预测误差评价主要采用均值类指标,无法全面、准确反映预测系统的运行情况.文中总结了风电功率预测误差的主要存在形式,提出了一套包含纵向误差、横向误差、相关因子与极端误差等在内的综合评价方法.基于内蒙古某风电场实际数据,采用该方法对不同预测方法、预测系统的不同误差环节进行了较为全面的评价,验证了评价指标的指导价值.

A Comprehensive Error Evaluation Method for Short-term Wind Power Prediction

Comprehensive evaluation of short-term wind power prediction results is essential for the improvement of prediction accuracy and for the application of prediction results.Most of present prediction error evaluation criteria are based on the mean-value indices and cannot be applied to analyze the level of the prediction system in all aspects.The paper summarizes the existence forms of prediction error,and proposes a set of comprehensive evaluation indices,including level errors,phase errors,correlation facto...