考虑实时和潜在因素的城市配电网风险评估模型和方法

为了对城市配电网的风险水平进行准确评估,建立了配电网风险评估模型,并提出一种风险评估方法。从运行风险和网架风险两个方面建立配电网的风险评估模型,运行风险反映了配电网当前运行状态下的风险,网架风险反映了网架结构方面存在的潜在风险。通过建立相应的配电网风险指标体系,并结合风险量化值的计算及风险等级的划分确定配电网综合风险水平,在计算风险量化值的过程中采用变权重和对数合成相结合的方式。算例表明所提出的城市配电网风险评估模型和评估方法能够有效地评估配电网的风险。目前,该风险评估模型及方法已在某供电局得到了初步应用。

Risk Assessment Model and Method of Urban Distribution Network Considering Real-time and Potential Factors

In order to make an accurate assessment of the risk level of urban distribution network, a risk assessing model of distribution network is established and a risk assessment method is proposed. The risk assessing model of distribution network is created in two aspects of operation risk and grid risk. The operation risk reflects the risk level of the current operation state of the distribution network, while the grid risk reflects the potential risks resulting from the defects of the grid structure. Then the corresponding risk assessing index system of distribution network is set up, and the risk quantized values and risk rating are calculated according to the index values. The comprehensive risk level of distribution network is figured out based on the above calculation results, and the variable weights and logarithm compound method are used in the process of calculation. Finally, a numerical example shows that the proposed risk assessment model is feasible and the risk assessment method is effective. The proposed risk assessment model has successfully been adopted by a power supply bureau.