计及高比例可再生能源运行特性的中长期电力发展分析

面对日益严峻的气候和环境问题,过去的高消耗、高排放的能源发展模式已难以为继,建立以可再生能源为主体的能源,特别是电力供应体系,实现能源清洁低碳转型发展成为大势。首先,介绍了面向高比例可再生能源的中长期电力发展研究思路。接着,提出了多区域、多场景中长期电力规划模型,该模型以全社会电力供应成本最小化为优化目标,考虑了电力系统扩展规划、运行、发电资源及能源电力政策等多方面约束;通过电力系统运行模拟在规划问题内的适度耦合,可计及风光等可再生能源发电的随机性与波动性。最后,基于所提规划模型,展望了中国2050年高比例可再生能源电力系统的电源格局与电力流,并对系统整体运行情况进行了分析。

Medium and Long-term Electric Power Development Considering Operating Characteristics of High Proportion of Renewable Energy

In the face of increasingly severe climate change and environmental deterioration problems, the energy development mode of high consumption and high emission for the past will not be sustainable. A cleaning and low-carbon development mode, which will be achieved by utilizing large-scale renewable energy as the main energy supply system, especially as the main power supply system, can be an alternative choice to cope with the challenge of future energy transformation. Firstly, a research methodology for the medium and long-term electric power development to consider high proportion of renewable energy is introduced. Then, a multi-region multi-scenario medium and long-term electric power planning model with the objective of minimizing the cost of power supply of the whole society is presented, in which the constraints of power system expansion planning, operation, power generation resources, policy, and others are taken into account. The model integrates a power system operation model and the panning model in a moderate way, so the randomness and volatility of wind/photovoltaic and other renewable energy can be reflected in the process of power system planning. Finally, the power supply patterns and power flows of China''s power systems with high proportion of renewable energy and the operation results in 2050 are analyzed based on the proposed planning model.