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发电投资的实物期权决策方法
引用本文:吉兴全,文福拴.发电投资的实物期权决策方法[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(11):1-5.
作者姓名:吉兴全  文福拴
作者单位:1. 浙江大学电力经济与信息化研究所,浙江省,杭州市,310027
2. 香港大学电机电子工程学系,香港
基金项目:中国博士后科学基金,香港研究资助局资助项目
摘    要:电力工业的市场化改革为发电投资决策引入了更多的不确定性因素,从而对决策的灵活性提出了更高的要求.针对传统发电规划方法难以处理对决策有灵活性要求的问题,文中提出将发电投资项目的灵活性表示为一种有价值的实物期权,运用Black-Scholes(B-S)期权定价模型对发电项目的延迟投资决策进行估价,在相当程度上避免了传统的发电投资决策方法依赖项目的净现值而对诸多实物期权价值只能凭主观判断的缺点,能够计及灵活性要求,做出更合理的投资决策.

关 键 词:发电投资  实物期权  电力市场
收稿时间:1/1/1900 12:00:00 AM
修稿时间:2005年1月12日

A Real Option Approach to Generation Investment Decision-making in Electricity Market Environment
JI Xing-quan,WEN Fu-shuan.A Real Option Approach to Generation Investment Decision-making in Electricity Market Environment[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2005,29(11):1-5.
Authors:JI Xing-quan  WEN Fu-shuan
Abstract:The world-wide power industry restructuring has introduced more uncertain factors for generation investment decision-making, and hence more flexibility concerning the investment strategy required. The currently available generation investment decision-making methods developed for the traditional regulated power industry could not well meet the flexibility requirement encountered in the electricity market environment. Given this background, a new decision-making method is presented in this paper with generation investment project flexibility regarded as a valuable real option. Based on the well-developed Black-Scholes option pricing theory, a deferment option model of generation investment is developed. This method is more applicable to the generation investment decision-making problem in the electricity market environment than the traditional net present value (NPV) based method.
Keywords:generation investment  real options  electricity market
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