考虑源荷双侧预测误差的实时发电计划闭环控制模型

针对源荷双侧不确定性对电网实时调度运行的影响,提出了模糊信息粒与机会约束目标规划相结合的建模求解方法,建立了实时发电计划与自动发电控制(AGC)闭环控制模型,动态优化系统的可调备用容量。针对服从不同概率分布函数的随机预测误差,引入模糊信息粒理论对可中断负荷切负荷率、负荷预测和风电出力的预测误差进行模糊粒子化,应用机会约束目标规划构建系统备用偏差量约束。在闭环控制过程中,通过动态调整机组的控制模式实现可调备用在不同类型机组间的合理分配,在目标函数中引入风险成本和机组模式转换成本,实现了满足安全备用需求条件下的经济最优性。最后,利用算例验证了模型的有效性和实用性。

Closed-loop Control Model for Real-time Generation Scheduling Considering Source-side and Load-side Prediction Error

The source-side and load-side uncertainty brings great difficulty to the real-time generation scheduling. To optimize the regulable capacity dynamically, the modeling solution method of fuzzy information granular chance constrained goal programming is proposed to establish the model of real-time generation scheduling and closed-loop control of automatic generation control. Aiming at the influence of the source-side and load-side prediction error, the fuzzy information granular theory is introduced to transform the prediction error of wind power, interruptible load and load prediction to the fuzzy granular, and chance constrained goal programming is applied to build the reserve error constraint. To allocate the regulable capacity among the different categories of generation units, the control modes of generation units are transferred dynamically. The risk cost and the code transformation cost are introduced to the objective function to achieve the economic optimality on the basis of meeting the reserve demand. Finally, the validity and effectiveness of the proposed model is verified with numerical tests.