计及热惯性和运行策略的综合能源系统可靠性评估方法

计及综合能源系统多时间尺度,考虑热力子系统的热惯性和多能互济的基本运行策略,提出了综合能源系统可靠性评估方法。首先,基于能源集线器模型对综合能源系统多能互济的特性进行分析,计算得到不同时间断面内各子系统支援容量,基于此推导出能流互济可靠性增益指标。其次,对热惯性进行准稳态建模,利用分析描述不同形式能源的品味差异和具体特征,以此设置系统基本运行策略。最后,通过基于马尔可夫链的蒙特卡洛方法计算综合能源系统的可靠性。基于德国某用户级综合能源系统的仿真结果表明:当某一子系统能流输入不足时,互济运行将带来较大的可靠性增益;当前不考虑热惯性的综合能源系统可靠性评估方法较为保守。

Reliability Evaluation of Integrated Energy System Considering Thermal Inertia and Operation Strategy

Considering the multiple time scales of integrated energy system(IES), thermal inertia of thermal subsystem and basic operation strategies complementary multiple energy, a method of reliability evaluation for IES is proposed. Firstly, in order to calculate the support capacity of each subsystem in different time intervals and the index of reliability gain for complementary multiple energy, characteristics of complementary multiple energy for IES are discussed based on the energy hub model. Then, the thermal inertia is modeled in quasi-steady state. The exergy difference and specific features of different energy are described by energy analysis, and the system basic operation strategy is set. Finally, the reliability of IES is calculated by Monte Carlo method based on Markov chain. The simulation results of a user-level for IES in Germany show that, when the energy flow input of a subsystem is insufficient, mutual operation will bring greater reliability gain, and the current reliability evaluation method without considering thermal inertia is conservative.