发电容量长期动态的仿真

供需容量的长期充裕性对电力系统的可靠运行至关重要。借助电力市场与电力系统交互动态仿真平台，暂时用模拟的实验环境（市场规则、报价策略、投资策略）代替部分参与者的行为，以研究发电充裕度的长期动态行为，剖析容量充裕度长期振荡的机理。通过仿真研究，揭示发电建设时滞、容量审批及个体投资博弈行为等因素影响充裕度振荡的周期、幅度以及市场集中度的机理，指导对电力市场环境下容量供需长期振荡的抑制。

Generation Capacity Long-term Dynamic Simulation

It is critically important to maintain long-term adequacy for power systems. With market rules, bidding strategies and investment strategies of market participants being represented as experimental environment, this paper studies long term dynamics of generation capacity adequacy by using dynamic simulations of investment market interacted with power market. Mechanisms of long term oscillation of the generation capacity adequacy are explored. The influences of generation capacity construction delays, surveillant approval to augment new capacity and game strategies of the investors on the oscillation cycle, swing magnitude and market concentration index are investigated, which is helpful to keep power market and power system healthy.