电力市场中效用风险指标及其决策模型的研究

电力市场条件下的可靠性问题已经引起人们的广泛关注，尤其是如何提供有效的手段保障市场条件下系统运行可靠性和经济性的协调发展。文中针对上述问题，提出了电力系统元件的效用风险指标的基本概念和计算方法。该指标考察了电力系统元件故障前后全社会福利的变化值，并将其与电力系统元件的物理可靠性结合起来．形成了一个可以同时评估系统元件可靠性和经济性的新方法，从而为电力市场条件下的电力系统可靠性研究提供了一条崭新的思路。为了验证所提出的理念，文中基于经过简化的电力市场模式．构造了新型的考虑效用风险指标的购电决策模型，并给出了求解过程。算例分析验证了文中提出的理念的可行性和合理性。

RESEARCH ON UTILITY RISK INDEX AND ITS APPLICATIONS IN ELECTRICITY MARKET TRADE MODEL

Power system reliability in a deregulated environment has been given much attention in recent years. Nowadays, the focus is on maintaining system reliability while achieving economic benefit in the electric power market. This paper proposes the basic concept along with its calculating method of the utility risk index of power systems to solve the problem mentioned above. The index calculates the change of the entire social welfare when a system component is faulty and then combines it with the component's physical reliability index, providing a brand new way to study power system reliability in an electric power market. To verify the idea proposed, a new decision-making model is developed for electricity trade with the utility risk index taken into account based on a simplified market model. The solving method of the decision model is also given. Case study shows the rationality and feasibility of the methodology presented.