基于非参数回归模型的短期风电功率预测

随着风电接入规模的增加,风电功率预测日益重要.非参数估计方法是模型估计和预测的典型方法之一,在国内短期风电功率预测中尚无应用.文中将非参数回归技术应用于短期风电功率预测,包括风电功率点预测和风电功率概率区间预测.首先,基于非参数回归模型,建立风速与风电功率之间的转换模型,得到风电功率的点预测值;其次,基于经验分布模型与非参数回归技术,建立风电功率预测误差的概率分布函数,得到风电功率预测值的概率区间.以内蒙古某风电场为例,验证了将非参数回归技术应用于风电功率预测的有效性.

Short-term Wind Power Forecast Based on Non-parametric Regression Model

With the increasing penetration of wind power into power systems,wind power forecast becomes increasingly important.Non-parametric regression,one of typical model evaluation and prediction methods,has not been used in the domestic short-term wind power forecast.This paper applies non-parametric regression model to the short-term wind power forecast of point value and probability interval.First,the forecast model for the point wind power with the wind speed as the input variable is developed based on the non...