台风及暴雨对电网故障率的时空影响

分析了台风及暴雨影响电力设备故障率的途径;指出停电防御系统为此应拓展采集的数据,包括宏观的天气预报信息及就地的气象数据;提出上述自然灾害中的电网故障率时空预警框架。根据气象信息,结合环境信息及地形地貌信息,预测台风及暴雨的时空演变趋势,并按地理特征修正,在线预报恶劣气象直接或通过山洪、滑坡和泥石流等次生灾害造成输电线断线、倒塔、闪络等故障率的改变。通过自然灾害与电力系统稳定分析模块的接口,将在线安全分析由针对不变的预想故障集改进为跟踪灾害动态修正的预想故障集,使停电防御系统对台风及暴雨灾害具备一定的预警及决策支持能力。

Space-time Impact of Typhoon and Rainstorm on Power Grid Fault Probability

The ways of electrical equipment fault probability influenced by typhoons and rainstorms are analyzed in detail. The scope of data acquisition of blackout defense system is expanded to macroscale meteorological forecast information as well as local meteorological data. A spatial-temporal early-warning method against these natural disasters is proposed. Firstly, according to the information of meteorology, environment, topography and geomorphology, the spatial-temporal evolution trends of typhoons and rainstorms can be predicted and modified. Then, the probability of faults such as broken lines, collapsed towers, flashover caused by adverse weather or derivative disasters such as landslide, debris flow and flood is forecasted on line. Through the module interface between natural disaster evaluation and power system stability analysis, the predictive fault set of online security analysis which was fixed can now be dynamically modified. Therefore, the blackout defense system against typhoon and rainstorm has definite ability of early warning and decision support. This work is supported by Special Fund of the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2013CB228204), State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61533010), China-Thailand Cooperation Fund Project (No. 5151101161), and Science and Technology Project of Yunnan Power Grid Company (No. YDTZ-F2014-105).