计及综合风险的油浸式变压器短期增容决策方法

电力变压器的动态增容有利于缓解长期供电矛盾,解决短期应急需求,现有研究主要围绕热点温度与故障率进行增容决策的制定。考虑运行风险提出了一种变压器短期增容决策方法,包括安全约束作用与经济风险校验2个阶段。首先基于热点温度与故障率约束生成满足安全性要求的预增容方案,然后通过计算增容利润与风险,搜索预增容方案与满载运行之间的经济性最优方案,生成最终决策。通过算例分析了变压器服役时间、计划增容时间等因素对短期增容计划的影响,最后与电网公司现行增容预案进行比较,结果表明所述方法可灵活应对实际工况进行变压器短期增容方案的制订,兼顾决策的安全性与经济性。

Short-term Capacity Increasing Decision Method for Oil-immersed Transformer Considering Comprehensive Risk

It is conducive to increasing transformer capacity to help relieve the long-term contradiction between power supply and demand and the short-term emergency demand. In existing studies, transformer capacity increasing(TCI)decision is based on the hottest spot temperature(HST)and failure rate(FR). In consideration of operation risks, a short-term TCI method including two stages is proposed. Firstly, a preliminary TCI decision constrained by HST and FR is generated. Then, the economically optimal TCI decision between the preliminary TCI decision and full-loaded operation is searched for as the final decision on the basis of economic risk verification according to profit and loss of power enterprises and community. In a case study, the influence of transformer service time and planned TCI time on the short-term TCI results is discussed. And the proposed method is compared with the current TCI plan of power enterprises. The results show that the short-term TCI plan can be made flexibly with the proposed method that attends to both security and economy.