| 基于实物期权理论的风电投资决策 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘敏,吴复立.基于实物期权理论的风电投资决策[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(21):19-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘敏 吴复立 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 贵州大学电气工程学院,贵州省贵阳市,550003
2. 香港大学电机电子工程系,香港 |
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| 基金项目： | 香港政府研究资助局(RGC)资助项目;贵州省教育厅自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 与传统的能源发电投资相比,风电投资具有更大的投资风险.在目前的技术水平下,风电的大力发展离不开国家的政策扶持.无论对风电投资者而言,还是对风电投资政策制定者而言,均迫切需要一个可将风险量化的投资辅助决策工具.基于实物期权理论,文中建立了适用于中国风电投资环境的风电项目投资决策模型.该模型考虑了风电上网电价的不确定性、风电场投资及运行成本、投资政策、投资时机等因素.算例分析表明该模型可为投资者选择合适的投资时机提供决策参考,另外还可作为政策制定者制定合理投资政策的量化分析工具.
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| 关 键 词： | 风电 发电投资 实物期权 |
| 收稿时间： | 2/12/2009 8:49:32 PM |
| 修稿时间： | 2009/10/21 0:00:00 |
Wind Power Investment Decision-making Strategy Based on Real Options Theory |
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| LIU Min,Felix F WU.Wind Power Investment Decision-making Strategy Based on Real Options Theory[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(21):19-23. |
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| Authors: | LIU Min Felix F WU |
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| Affiliation: | LIU Min1,Felix F WU2(1.Guizhou University,Guiyang 550003,China,2.The University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,China) |
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| Abstract: | The investment in the wind power faces more risks than in conventional generation.Currently,the rapid development of wind power still depends on the government support.Both investors and policy-makers urgently need a decision making support tool to quantify the investment risks.Based on the real options theory,this paper develops a decision-making model for the wind power investment in China,which considers various influential factors on the decision such as the uncertainty of electricity prices,investment ... |
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| Keywords: | wind power generation investment real options |
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