关于暂态稳定不确定性分析的评述

从随机变量、概率模型、概率算法以及特定场景下的暂态稳定评估等方面,回顾国内外对暂态稳定概率分析和风险分析的研究和现状,归纳各种分析方法的原理及优缺点,讨论减少计算量的技术,探讨暂态稳定性概率分析及风险分析的发展方向.指出在计算失稳概率时尽量采用灵敏度分析技术来代替抽样仿真,将大大减少计算量.提出用最优稳定控制的代价来反映经济损失,即用主动停电造成的损失代替系统失稳后不受控停电的损失,使风险值可以实际计算.

A Review of Non-deterministic Analysis for Power System Transient Stability

The status of probabilistic analysis and risk assessments for transient stability is reviewed, in terms of stochastic variables, probabilistic models, probabilistic algorithms, deterministic transient stability consequence assessments of a specifically scenario and other aspects. The principle, advantages and disadvantages of various assessment methods are summarized, and the techniques capable of decreasing computation burden are discussed.; The development direction of probability and risk assessments for transient stability is also explored. It is pointed out that using sensitivity analysis to reduce the number of simulation cases will considerably decrease computational burden. It is also proposed to use the optimum control cost to reflect economic loss due to the system instability, which means using controllable outages to replace the uncontrolled outages and makes risk analysis practical.