电力需求的不确定性分析

电力需求预测与分析是电力系统规划与运行的基础工作。常规的电力需求预测结果一般是确定性的,忽视了预测结果本身的概率特性。引入不确定性的分析思想,实现概率化的预测和分析,对于实际工作具有重要意义。在剖析传统的电力需求分析方法的基础上,引入序列运算理论,形成一个全新的不确定性分析思路,并以电量类指标的预测为突破口,提出了序列化分析方法,可以充分考虑分析结果的概率特性,为电力系统的规划与运行提供直接的决策依据。文中以实例验证了所提出的分析方法的有效性。

Analysis of the Uncertainty of Electric Power Demand

Electric power demand forecasting is a critical component in power system planning and operation. Most of traditional methods can only forecast the deterministic electric power demand, taking no consideration of the probabilistic characteristics of electricity demand forecasting problem. In addition, the probability distribution of electricity demand is of practical significance and the uncertainty analysis should be applied in the forecasting problem. After analyzing the traditional approaches, a new uncertainty electric power demand forecasting and analyzing approach based on the sequence operation theory is proposed. By taking into account the probabilistic characteristics, the method proposed is capable of forecasting the probability distribution of different power demand levels in the future, which can provide valuable information for power system planning and operation. Numerical examples show the efficiency of the models proposed.