| 电源投资规模选择权的实物期权方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李开海,郭耀煌,蒋燕.电源投资规模选择权的实物期权方法[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(23):48-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李开海 郭耀煌 蒋燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川省,成都市,610031
2. 四川省电力公司培训中心,四川省,成都市,610072 |
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| 摘 要： | 规模经济是企业降低成本的一种有效方法，在目前的电源项目投资决策中，忽略了电源建设规模灵活性选择权的价值。在考虑燃料成本变化的情况下，以建设不同规模、不同燃料的机组为研究对象，以未来成本流现值最小化为目标函数，考虑机组规模大小选择权的价值，建立了电源投资决策的数学模型，导出了基于实物期权的决策准则，改进了净现值决策准则。
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| 关 键 词： | 电源投资 机组规模 选择权价值 实物期权方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-05-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-05-082006-06-09 |
Real Option Methods in Options of Scale for Electric Generation Investment |
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| LI Kaihai,GUO Yaohuang,JIANG Yan.Real Option Methods in Options of Scale for Electric Generation Investment[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2006,30(23):48-52. |
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| Authors: | LI Kaihai GUO Yaohuang JIANG Yan |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China;2. Training Center of Sichuan Electric Power Corporation, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Economies of scale is an effective way of reducing cost in enterprises. However, in current electric generation project investment decision, the value of the option for generation units investment of scales are overlooked. Considering fuel cost variation, this article studies generation units with different scales and energy sources, sets objective function as minimizing cash flow of future cost, considers value of flexibility option, and builds mathematical model generation investment decision-making, then introduces decision criteria based on real option, and improves net present value (NPV) decision criteria. |
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| Keywords: | electric generation investment generation units of scale value of choice option real option methods |
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