基于循环完善法和树状结构事故链的电网连锁故障研究

首次提出了运用循环完善搜索模式和树状结构事故链图形化表达法来分析电网的连锁故障。循环完善搜索模式可以使连锁反应事故集不断地充实完善,使电网连锁故障的全面预测搜索成为可能,进而可为运行人员及早采取正确的决策措施提供技术支持。另外,首次提出的树状结构事故链图形化表达法主要借鉴故障树分析法对树状结构事故链进行分析,可以直观地表达连锁故障事件的发展路径和最终结果,符合电网连锁故障的发展逻辑,该方法可以方便地求取导致连锁故障事件的最小割集、最小割集的发生概率以及由初始故障引发连锁反应事故的概率和各最小割集在此连锁反应事故中的重要程度,从而可以很好地反映电网的脆弱性,算例演示表明该方法具有良好的应用价值。

Research on Power Grid Cascading Failures Based on Circulating Perfectible Mode and Fault Chain of Tree Structure

Circulating perfectible search mode and fault chain figure expression method of tree structure are first used to analyze power grid cascading failures.Circulating perfectible search mode can enrich cascading failures collection,and makes it possible realize the comprehensive predicting and searching for cascading failures of the power grid,and offers technical support for dispatchers to take correct decision-makings as soon as possible.Fault chain figure expression method of tree structure mainly uses fault tree analysis for reference to analyze fault chain of tree structure.It can express the development routes of cascading failures and final results intuitively,and consists with the development logic of cascading failures.Moreover it can easily obtain minimal cut sets and their probabilities and the probability of the cascading failures caused by initial fault and the important degrees of minimal cut sets,which can reflect the frangibility of power grid.Calculated example demonstrates that fault chain figure expression method of tree structure has good using value to analyze cascading failures.