风向空间分散性及其对全场风电功率预测误差的影响

风电功率预测对风电场和电力系统的稳定运行都具有重要意义。通过提高风速预测精度可以改善风电功率预测精度。风电场的风不是时刻都垂直有效作用在风机上,风向代表了风速与风机间的夹角,进而决定了垂直作用在风机上的有效风速,因此风向也是影响风电功率预测精度的因素。分析了风向空间分散性及其带来全场风电功率计算和预测误差的机理,给出了各种误差间的相互关系。算例结果表明,考虑风向的空间分散性,比仅以平均风向计算有效风速得到的全场风电功率预测误差小。实例表明,在风速空间分散性基础上考虑风向空间分散性会进一步提高全场风电功率预测精度。

Spatial Dispersion of Wind Direction and Its Influence on The Forecast Error of Wind Power in A Wind Farm

Wind power prediction has important significance for the stable operation of wind farms and power system.Wind power prediction accuracy can be improved by raising wind speed prediction accuracy.Wind on the wind farm is not always effectively vertical role on the fan,the wind direction on behalf of the angle between the wind speed and fan,which determines the vertical effect of effective wind speed on the fan,so the direction of the wind is one factor affecting wind power prediction accuracy.This paper analyzes the wind direction space dispersion and the mechanism of wind power calculation and prediction error,the mechanism of the mutual relations between all kinds of error is given.Numerical example results show that considering the wind direction spatial dispersion is more effective than only in terms of average wind direction.Examples show that considering the wind direction spatial dispersion based on the wind speed spatial dispersion will further improve the whole wind power prediction accuracy.