基于Copula方法的风光互补发电系统相关性模型研究

风光互补发电系统中风速和光照具有相关性,二者联合分布函数的建立可以提高配电网可靠性评估水平。文中以呼和浩特地区一年间风速和光照的最大值为样本,采用核密度估计得到风速和光照的累积分布函数,通过三种阿基米德Copula函数分别构造二者的二元联合分布函数解析式,以最小的拟合误差选择出最优的Copula函数。该方法只需检验函数中参数θ是否满足要求,从而避免了常规数学方法建模过程中的繁琐计算。

Correlation Model Research in the Wind/Solar Hybrid Generation System based on Copula Function

The correlation of wind speed and illumination should be considered in the Wind/Solar Hybrid Generation System. The establishment of the joint distribution function has important sign ificance to reducing the deviation of distribution network reliability evaluation.This paper uses th e maximum wind speed and illumination in a year in Hohhot area as sample, and uses kernel dens ity estimation to get the cumulative distribution function of wind speed and illumination ,then st ructures the binary joint distribution function through three Archimedes Copula function. After ge tting the edge distribution of the wind speed and illumination distribution , this method can easily gets specific binary joint distribution function expression only throughing test the parameter of fu nction whether meets to the requirements.Besides ,this method avoids complicated calculation pr ocess in the conventional mathematical modeling method, and it also chooses the optimal copula function based on the minimum fitting error.