基于改进协同演化算法的综合能源系统经济性与可靠性优化规划

随着多能流耦合程度的加深以及能源利用需求的多样化,综合能源系统(IES)对规划方案的经济性与可靠性提出了更高的要求.然而,经济性与可靠性之间存在相互制约的复杂关系,导致二者难以实现协调优化.为此,提出了一种基于改进协同演化算法的IES经济性与可靠性优化规划方法.在多场景经济性评估模型和基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛法的供能可靠性评估模型的基础上构建IES多目标优化规划模型;基于正交试验法计算决策变量对系统经济性与可靠性的影响因子,并建立经济性和可靠性演化子种群,进而提出一种基于改进协同演化算法的模型优化方法;结合某地区的实际数据开展算例仿真分析,仿真结果表明所提模型可以协调提升IES规划方案的经济性与可靠性.

Optimal planning for economy and reliability of integrated energy system based on improved co-evolution algorithm

With the deepening of the coupling degree of multi-energy flow and the diversification of energy utilization demand, IES(Integrated Energy System) puts forward higher requirements for the economy and reliability of the planning scheme. However, the complex relationship between economy and reliability is mutually restricted, which makes it difficult for them to realize coordinated optimization. Therefore, an optimal planning method for economy and reliability of IES based on improved co-evolution algorithm is proposed. Based on the multi-scenario economic evaluation model and the reliability evaluation model of energy supply based on Markov chain Monte Carlo method, a multi-objective optimization planning model of IES is established. Then, the influence factors of decision variables on system economy and reliability are calculated based on the orthogonal experiment method, and the economy and reliability evolution subpopulations are established, furthermore a model optimization method based on improved co-evolution algorithm is proposed. The simulation analysis of a case study based on the actual data in a certain area is carried out, and the simulative results show that the proposed model can realize the coordinated improvement for economy and reliability of the planning scheme of IES.