| 基于日周期多点外推法的超短期负荷预测及其误差分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周劼英,张伯明,尚金成,姚佳,程满.基于日周期多点外推法的超短期负荷预测及其误差分析[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25(2):15-17,21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周劼英 张伯明 尚金成 姚佳 程满 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学,电机工程与应用电子技术系,北京,100084;河南省电力公司,调度通信中心,河南,郑州,450052 |
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| 摘 要： | 具有预测功能的超前自动发电控制AGC(Automatic Generation Control)可以提高AGC的控制性能。同时，电力市场中的实时交易也需要一种较为精确的超短期负荷预测方法。从目前常用的周期外推法出发，针对该方法的误差来源提出一种多点外推方法，并使用随机信号和数理统计方法对其精度作了分析。对预测结果的分析表明，多点外推法不仅减少了平均误差，也使最大误差降低。能有效提高预测精度。该方法简单实用，能满足电力市场实时调度的需要。
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| 关 键 词： | 多点外推法 超短期负荷预测 误差分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-6047(2005)02-0015-03 |
Very short term load forecast based on multi-sample extrapolation and error analysis |
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| ZHOU Jie-ying,ZHANG Bo-ming,SHANG Jin-cheng,YAO Ji,CHENG Man.Very short term load forecast based on multi-sample extrapolation and error analysis[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2005,25(2):15-17,21. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Jie-ying ZHANG Bo-ming SHANG Jin-cheng YAO Ji CHENG Man |
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| Abstract: | Both future-oriented AGC(Automatic Generation Control) and spot power market need very short term load forecast. Based on the error source analysis of general extrapolation method, a multi-sample extrapolation method is presented. Stochastic signals and statistics theory are applied to analyze its precision. Practical results show that the proposed method lowers both average error and maximum error and improves forecasting precision. It is suitable for spot market for its convenience and practicality. |
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| Keywords: | multi-sample extrapolation very short term load forecast error analysis |
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