基于台风场景模拟的配电网架空线路薄弱环节辨识方法

为降低台风造成的配电网负荷和经济损失,需对配电网架空线路的薄弱环节进行辨识。首先,考虑台风预报信息及其不确定性,利用Batts模型刻画台风登陆后风场各点风速及其衰减过程;然后,基于电杆风荷载与抗弯强度的关系建立电杆与线路故障率模型;同时,综合考虑线路故障频率及供电负荷重要程度定义线路脆弱度指标,并采用层次分析法确定指标中各因素权重;最后,提出一种台风场景下基于蒙特卡罗法的配电网架空线路薄弱环节辨识方法。典型算例结果表明,以所提方法确定的线路薄弱环节作为加固配电网混凝土电杆、分配应急发电车的依据,可有效降低台风灾害下配电网负荷和经济损失。

Identification method of weak links of overhead lines in distribution network based on typhoon scenario simulation

In order to reduce the load and economic loss of distribution network caused by typhoon, it is needed to identify the weak links of overhead lines in distribution network. Firstly, considering the forecasting information of typhoon and its uncertainties, Batts model is used to describe wind speed of each point in wind field and its attenuation process after typhoon landing. Secondly, the failure rate models of pole and line are established based on the relationship between wind load and bending strength of the pole. Meanwhile, the line vulnerability index is defined considering the line failure frequency and the load importance degree comprehensively, and the analytic hierarchy process is adopted to determine the weight of factors in the index. Finally, an identification method of weak links of overhead lines in distribution network based on Monte Carlo method is proposed under the scenario of typhoon. The results of typical case show that the load and economic loss of distribution network under typhoon disaster can be effectively reduced by taking the weak links of overhead lines determined by the proposed method as the basis for reinforcing the concrete poles and distributing emergency generators of distribution network.