基于故障树蒙特卡洛模拟法的孤岛微电网薄弱环节识别

为增强微电网风险评估工作的针对性,采用故障树蒙特卡洛模拟法对孤岛微电网的薄弱环节进行识别。以网内不同用户供电中断为顶事件建立各用户的故障树模型,通过蒙特卡洛模拟法随机抽样建立孤岛微电网的两状态模型。从元件重要度和网络风险重要度2个方面,建立微电网薄弱环节重要度指标体系。对某典型低压孤岛微电网的薄弱环节进行识别,评估孤岛微电网的可靠运行能力,算例结果验证了所提方法的合理性。结果表明,柴油机和逆变器是该算例微电网的薄弱环节,降低其故障率有利于降低微电网的风险水平。

Weak part identification based on fault-tree Monte Carlo simulation for islanded microgrid

FTMCS(Fault Tree Monte Carlo Simulation) method is applied to identify the weak parts of islanded microgrid for improving its risk assessment. A user fault-tree model with the power outage as its top event is built for different users. MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation) method is applied to establish the two-state model of islanded microgrid. An importance index system based on component importance and network risk importance is built for the weak parts of microgrid. The weak parts of a typical low-voltage islanded microgrid are identified and its ability of reliable operation is assessed, which verifies the rationality of the proposed method. Results show that, since diesel engines and inverters are weak parts of the case microgrid, its risk level can be decreased by lowering their failure rates.