基于蒙特卡罗模拟的概率潮流计算

针对目前概率潮流算法在处理节点功率间变化的相关性、网络拓扑随机变化及评价指标方面的不足，提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟的概率潮流算法，采用K均值聚类负荷模型，考虑了发电和输电元件的故障停运和检修停运，并在网络模型中计及继电保护和重合闸等二次元件故障的影响，建立了较为完整的评估指标体系，从而在概率潮流的实用化方面取得了显著进展。

PROBABILISTIC LOAD FLOW ANALYSIS BASED ON MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION

In view of the shortcomings in dealing with the correlation of power variations among nodes by probabilistic power flow algorithm at present, in random change of network topology and in evaluating indices, a probabilistic power flow algorithm based on Monte Carlo simulation is put forward. In this algorithm the K means cluster load model is adopted, the forced outage and planed outage of both generation and transmission equipments are considered and the influences of secondary elements such as protective relaying and reclosers on network model are taken into account. Thus, a more complete framework of risk assessment indices is established and a remarkable progress in practicality of probabilistic power flow is obtained.