高压直流输电系统可靠性灵敏度分析模型

为从元件层面刻画高压直流输电系统可靠性影响程度，提出了直流系统元件可靠性灵敏度指标，结合故障树法及频率和持续时间法建立了高压直流输电系统元件可靠性灵敏度分析的组合模型，提出了直流系统可靠性评估概率灵敏度和关键重要度的定义。最后通过2个算例，对单/双12脉高压/特高压直流输电系统进行可靠性评估及灵敏度分析，基于计算结果对各元件或子系统对系统可靠性的影响及元件备用的影响进行了全面探讨。该方法对于识别系统的薄弱环节，对系统的增强措施分析及系统运行维修决策具有参考意义。

A Sensitivity Analysis Model of HVDC Transmission System Reliability Evaluation

To depict the impact of components on reliability of HVDC power transmission system, a sensitivity index of component reliability of HVDC system is proposed. Combining with fault tree method and frequency and duration (FD) method, a combination model for sensitivity analysis of component reliability of HVDC system is built, and the definition of probability sensitivity of HVDC system reliability and that of key significance level are given. By means of two calculation examples, the reliability evaluation and sensitivity analysis of single 12-pulse and dual 12-pulse HVDC systems are conducted. According to calculation results, the impacts of each component or sub-system on HVDC system reliability and component backup are deeply studied. The proposed method is available for reference to the analysis on enhancement measures for HVDC system and the decision- making of system operation and maintenance.